Jonathan Turley Predicts a Likely Loss for Trump on Birthright Citizenship at the Supreme Court, and Why One Other Case Looks More Promising

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As the Supreme Court wraps up its current term, one of the biggest cases on the docket is not looking good for the Trump administration. Legal scholar Jonathan Turley offered a frank assessment during a June 21 appearance on Fox News Sunday, hosted by Shannon Bream, as originally covered by Trending Views. Bream framed the upcoming wave of opinions as something like a championship event for Court watchers.

The focal point of the discussion was the birthright citizenship challenge, which Turley has previously called a uniquely poor idea to defend. Even so, he was straightforward about where things appear to stand. Oral arguments took place on April 1, 2026, and that session was notable for another reason: President Trump showed up in person, marking the first time a sitting president attended oral arguments at the Court.

Despite that historic moment, Turley said the arguments themselves were not encouraging for the administration. He pointed specifically to Chief Justice John Roberts, who reportedly voiced skepticism right out of the gate. Turley noted that the real question is whether anything shifted during the justices' private conference deliberations.

He acknowledged that outcomes can occasionally change during the opinion drafting phase. Roberts, for instance, is widely believed to have flipped his position on the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act ruling at the eleventh hour. However, Turley was clear that a similar reversal in this case would be a long shot. He said most observers are bracing for a loss on the administration's side.

Tom Dupree, a former principal deputy assistant attorney general, shared a similar outlook. He suggested the administration likely understood going in that persuading the Court would be extremely difficult. Dupree emphasized that judges across multiple generations have consistently affirmed that birthright citizenship is protected by the Constitution, and he does not anticipate a last minute shift.

The conversation took a more optimistic turn when the panel discussed a separate case involving mail in ballots and whether federal election deadlines should be strictly enforced. Turley indicated that the oral arguments in that dispute seemed to favor the position that Election Day should mean exactly that.

He also referenced the prolonged ballot counting situation in California, arguing that it reinforced the reasoning behind enforcing a firm deadline. If the Court sides with that interpretation, ballots for federal contests would need to arrive by Election Day itself, which could create logistical challenges for states that combine federal and state races on the same ballot.

With the term expected to conclude sometime in late June or early July, these landmark rulings could drop at any moment.

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